Europe has the worst case scenario ready for a hard Brexit

“No more exceptional measures for the United Kingdom.” MEP Anneleen Van Bossuyt notes with regret that the British have rejected the Brexit deal. As a member of the steering group in the European Parliament that has prepared every possible Brexit scenario, Anneleen Van Bossuyt does not see a rosy future for the relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom. “The rejection has the extremely probable consequence that trading with the UK will become a lot more expensive and complex,” the MEP says.

European interests first

Over the last few months, a steering group of the European institutions has worked out a what-if scenario. As the chair of the Internal Market and Consumer Protection committee, Anneleen Van Bossuyt is a member of that internal working group. “The current preparations take as their starting point the worst case scenario, a hard Brexit. With only European interests first. No more exceptional measures for the UK. We must seek to avoid this scenario at all costs. But that won’t be easy. The highest echelons of the European Commission are clearly signalling that they do not wish to negotiate on a no-deal agreement.”

Transport will take a big hit

Certain sectors risk being hit hard. “Among others, the transport sector will take a big hit. British truckers will only be able to drive to and from the United Kingdom and a destination in the EU. The same goes for British airlines like easyJet. In the case of a hard Brexit, the low-cost airlines will from that point forward only be able to fly between the United Kingdom and the EU. So it will no longer be possible to take an easyJet flight between two locations within the EU.”

British people out

It has long been clear that a hard Brexit is disastrous for trade. But also for British people living in the EU, uncertain times are ahead. Nevertheless, Anneleen Van Bossuyt sees a few hopeful signals: “British people who have been living in the EU for a considerable time are being reassured by high-ranking officials. They are calling on the member states to be lenient. Many have built their lives here. It cannot be the goal to eject these people from the country.”

Hard Irish border

But many British people in Northern Ireland will be lying awake tonight because of the border that will separate them from the Republic of Ireland. Anneleen Van Bossuyt foresees major problems here too: “The most important and most frightening consequence of a hard Brexit is that a hard border with Northern Ireland will be inevitable. The negotiators indicate that a hard border is an inevitable consequence if the United Kingdom remains divided. We must continue to ensure that the Good Friday agreement is respected. Otherwise feelings there risk flaring up quickly.”